The Great ShakeOut - 10AM Today

The Great ShakeOut, California's big earthquake drill simulating a magnitude 7.8 earthquake along the San Andreas fault, happens today at 10am. The ShakeOut has a website that gives lots of information. Here's the scenario:

The Great Southern California ShakeOut is based on a potential magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault— approximately 5,000 times larger than the magnitude 5.4 earthquake that shook southern California on July 29. It’s not a matter of if an earthquake of this size will happen—but when. And it is possible that it will happen in our lifetime.

Dr. Lucy Jones of the U.S. Geological Survey has led a group of over 300 scientists, engineers, and others to study the likely consequences of this potential earthquake in great detail. The result is the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario, which is also the basis of this year’s statewide emergency response exercise, Golden Guardian 2008.

In an earthquake of this size, the shaking will last for nearly two minutes. The strongest shaking will occur near the fault (in the projected earthquake, the Coachella Valley, Inland Empire and Antelope Valley). Pockets of strong shaking will form away from the fault where sediments trap the waves (in the projected earthquake, it would occur in the San Gabriel Valley and in East Los Angeles).

An earthquake of this size will cause unprecedented damage to Southern California—greatly dwarfing the massive damage that occurred in Northridge’s 6.7-magnitude earthquake in 1994. In summary, the ShakeOut Scenario estimates this earthquake will cause some 2,000 deaths, 50,000 injuries, $200 billion in damage and other losses, and severe, long-lasting disruption. The report has regional implications and is a dramatic call to action for preparedness.

The City of Claremont is participating in the Great Shakeout and has a disaster preparedness page on its Public Safety website.

The Shakeout folks have also posted several YouTube videos. Here's a graphical simulation of the Big One:

Brush Fire Drill Concludes Today

If you noticed helicopters whizzing around the local foothills, don't be alarmed. A multi-agency brush fire drill has been going on in the Claremont Hills Wilderness Park since Tuesday and concludes at noon today.

The drill participants include fire fighters from the following fire departments: Los Angeles County, San Bernardino County, the U.S. Forest Service, La Verne, Upland, and Chino Valley.

Even with last week's cool, rainy weather, the fire season has gotten off to a quick start, and figures to pick up as the summer wears on. The Daily Bulletin had a brief article about the fire season's early arrival:

At a press conference Wednesday in Diamond Bar, Ventura County Fire Department Chief Bob Roper said the grassland and chaparral on the slopes of Southern California hills and mountains are already in midsummer form.

With the rain arriving earlier and the grasses having matured, "it is ready to take a fire and carry it with heavy fuels," Roper said.

"The severity of the fire season will be determined by the number of days of wind, humidity and the fuel conditions we have with us."

More than 87,000 acres of brushland were burned during the 2007 season, compared with about 85,000 acres for the previous three years combined. Fire damage, estimated at $274 million, was up nearly $150 million from the previous year.

The article also reported that the total number of fires actually dropped last year, but the damage costs rose because the homes that were burned were in pricey areas.

It's reassuring to see the fire departments going through there paces. During the last big fire in 2003, there seemed to be a good deal of confusion and miscommunication that added to the problems residents reported in after-action reviews. As we've since learned, a little investment now goes a long way towards avoiding big costs down the line.